Market Seasonality

Seasonality is the study of a market over time to establish if there is a regular and predictable change that occurs within its price every calendar year. Every market experiences periods of either greater supply or demand throughout a year, and it is these forces that drive seasonal patterns. Seasonality allows us to establish these periods to give us an indication ahead of time how a market could perform in the near future.  

Our members have access to Seasonal patterns (Just like British Pound example below) for over 40 major markets and are extremely powerful when combined with our CoT data. E.g. If a markets seasonal pattern indicates a price rally is possible in the coming months and we can see strong buying is taking place in that market through our CoT data, it is a very good indication that its seasonal pattern will ring true again this calendar year.

Our seasonal patterns are based on the study of each market over 4 time periods (where data allows), 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, and the complete available history. This is to ensure that the seasonal pattern of a market has not changed over time, and is therefore still tradeable in today's market conditions. Looking at any market over just one time period in isolation, can be very misleading. 

Use our Performance heat map below to find the largest historical seasonal moves and then navigate to each market to see its full seasonal pattern and identify times for entry and exit. Remember, a seasonal pattern gives us a bias for a market but this should be backed up with our CoT data to give the best signals.   

Monthly Performance Heat Map - by Market
This heat map shows the best and worst months for each market

British Pound - Seasonal cycle example

Notice GBP's tendency to be weak at the beginning of the year only to start a fight back in mid March. A strong July is often followed by weakness in August, with relatively small fluctuations through year end.

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