Market Seasonality


Seasonality is the study of a market over time to establish if there is a regular and predictable change that occurs within its price every calendar year. Every market experiences periods of either greater supply or demand throughout a year, and it is these forces that drive seasonal patterns. Seasonality allows us to establish these periods to give us an indication ahead of time how a market could perform in the near future.  

Start by using our Performance heat map below to find the largest historical seasonal moves and then navigate to each market individually in our members area to see its full seasonal pattern and identify the best time for entry and exit points. 

Remember, a seasonal pattern gives us a bias for a market but this should be backed
up with our 
CoT data to give the best signals.   
 
 
Monthly Performance Heat Map - by Market

This heat map shows the best and worst months for each market through the year. Use the map as a starting
point to find the biggest movers each month before then checking out the complete seasonal pattern for
those markets in our seasonal charts data base. To access seasonal data base, log on here
Monthly performance heatmap for Currencies, stocks, Gold, Crude and commodities
 
Our members have access to the Seasonal charts (Just like British Pound example below) for over 40 major markets and are extremely powerful when combined with our CoT data. E.g. If a markets seasonal pattern indicates a price rally is possible in the coming months and we can see strong buying is taking place in that market through our CoT data, it is a very good indication that its seasonal pattern will ring true again this calendar year.

Our seasonal patterns are based on the study of each market over 4 time periods (where data allows), 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, and the complete available history. This is to ensure that the seasonal pattern of a market has not changed over time, and is therefore still tradeable in today's market conditions. Looking at any market over just one time period in isolation, can be very misleading. 
 


British Pound - Seasonal cycle example

GBP's is a market like many others that has repeatable patterns within a calendar year, from its strength in May to its weakness in August, time and time again this pattern will surprise you. The tendency for the British pound is to be weak at the beginning of the year only to start a fight back in mid March through to the end of April/beginning of May. A second pattern often sees the currency rally strongly in July before experiencing weakness in August. GBP has been negative for the month of August, 9 out of the past 12 years. 
Seasonal chart for the British pound since 1976

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