The Most Powerful Seasonal Pattern: Backed by Data, Not Guesswork

If you’ve spent any time digging into seasonal patterns in the markets, you’ll know how overwhelming it can be to begin with. There’s no shortage of “patterns” to follow – 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 40-year, election years, biannual years, the list goes on. It often feels like there are as many seasonal patterns as there are possible market outcomes. So how do you cut through the noise and find the patterns that actually matter?
 

The truth is most of what you see online only adds to the confusion. You’ll find “experts” bouncing between patterns without ever explaining why they’re doing it, or worse, they just follow whichever chart looks best at the time. But here’s the thing: there is a way to bring order to the chaos, and it starts (and ends) with the data.
 

At MarketsMadeClear, we don’t just talk about market seasonality, we test it relentlessly. And after years of research, we can confidently say there is one pattern that stands out above the rest in terms of consistency and reliability.
 

In our ongoing performance testing, we focus on several benchmark seasonal cycles:
 

These form the foundation of our seasonal platform, and we evaluate them across hundreds of market instruments to determine which patterns actually deliver results.
 

Year after year, the data tells the same story: the 20-year seasonal pattern is the most consistent and effective. In 2023, (the year we launched our software) our optimum seasonal trades had a 74% success rate, and they were all driven by the 20-year pattern. In 2024, that figure was 67%, again led by the 20-year cycle. Trailing just behind is the “all-years” pattern, which reinforces the importance of long-term historical data. Meanwhile, shorter patterns like the 10-year and 5-year regularly underperform, sometimes with as much as a 10% drop in success rate.

It’s not magic. It’s math.
 

Seasonal patterns are built on historical repetition. Without a solid amount of history, there’s simply not enough data to trust that a market move is truly “seasonal”. That’s why the 20-year and all-years patterns, those with deeper historical backing, consistently outperform the rest.
 

If you're just starting out with seasonal research, start with the 20-year pattern. That’s why it’s the default setting in our seasonal platform. You can see an example of this on the chart below showing the 20-year pattern (orange line) for the EURNZD cross currency pair. At the top of the page it is also showing price currently has a 78% correlation with this pattern (very strong), and the optimum periods highlighted at the bottom of the chart shows we just came out of a very strong bullish pattern (successful), and are now heading towards a bearish period, (yellow line is price action so far this year). This is the information you need to be successful with seasonal trading. 
 

Starting with the 20-year gives you the strongest base, the most consistency, and the clearest picture of true seasonal tendencies. Sure, there are moments when shorter-term patterns may be useful, especially if the 20-year correlation is weak. But even then, don’t fall into the trap of jumping from one pattern to another on a whim. If you’re going to use an alternative cycle, do so intentionally and only when supported by price correlation data.

 

And above all, be consistent.
 

If you’re looking at a 20-year pattern for one market, don’t suddenly switch to a 15-year pattern on another just because the chart looks better. That’s not analysis it’s cherry-picking, and it will lead to inconsistent outcomes.
 

There’s a lot of hype around seasonal trading. But the real edge comes from discipline, data, and a deep understanding of how market seasonality actually works. So next time you open up a seasonal chart, ask yourself: how much history is backing this pattern. Start with the 20-year cycle. Stick with it. And let the data do the rest.

Happy trading

Ray Gilmour
Founder & Senior analyst at Markets Made Clear.com