Seasonal Trading still Outperforms

We ran a full back test using our proprietary seasonal pattern software, covering all major asset classes to see how well its seasonal patterns played out. The results? A 67% average success rate across the board, a solid outcome, though slightly down from 2023’s 74% (2023 results here). But dig a little deeper, and you’ll see why seasonal trading remains a powerful tool for traders looking to improve their edge.
 

Our back testing methodology remains straightforward: we take seasonal patterns that have historically shown strong probabilities, combined with a correlation to price of >50%, and test them under real market conditions.

Also keep in mind for the test, we simply entered at the opening price on the start date and exited at the closing price on the end date. We do not recommend doing it like this because patterns can start earlier or later than expected, which is why we must use price action to confirm entries, but it keeps our tests fair and consistent.

The headline number for 2024 was a 67% success rate, meaning nearly 7 out of 10 seasonal setups played out as expected. That’s a great edge for traders, but a dip from 74% in 2023.
 

The Best Performing Markets: Forex, Energies, Metals, Indices & Stocks
Despite the slight drop in the overall success rate, certain asset classes maintained strong seasonal reliability.

✔ Forex Cross Pairs: 76% success rate.
✔ Energies: 73% success rate.
✔ Metals: 69% success rate.
✔ Indices: 77% success rate.

These figures show that for traders focusing on seasonally strong assets, seasonal strategies continued to deliver a strong performance.
 

Not all markets played along. In fact, two assets significantly underperformed:

✘ Bonds: Only a 53% success rate.
✘ Soft Commodities: Just 48%.

These weaker performances dragged the overall average down. But as always, trading seasonality isn’t just about blindly following patterns – it’s about applying them to the right markets at the right time.
 

Our testing reaffirms a key truth: seasonal patterns work best when they align with the current market conditions. If a market is following its historical seasonal pattern, it tends to continue doing so. If it starts diverging, that’s a red flag. Our data shows that when traders only focus on markets that positively correlate with their seasonal patterns, success rates jump significantly.
 

This reinforces the idea that context matters. Seasonality isn’t just about past trends, it’s about identifying when a market is truly moving in line with its historical tendencies.
 

We’re not the first to test the power of seasonality. Many studies have been done before confirming this point, but one study in particular in 2019 called The Global Factor Premiums report, carried out by Erasmus University Rotterdam and Robeco Institutional Asset Management, analysed over two centuries of market data (1800-2016).

They tested popular investment styles, including; trend, momentum, value, and of course seasonal tendencies, and found clear evidence of a significant advantage from seasonal patterns compared to the other styles, across all the assets they tested, stocks, commodities, bonds, and currencies.
 

So, what does all this mean for traders? Here are the key takeaways:
✅ Focus on the right asset classes – Look at the recent performance of markets within various assets to see the strongest performing. Look at our top 20 correlations and performers list to see which assets are consistently topping the tables.
✅ Be aware of underperforming sectors – Just like above, look for signs of underperformance across an asset class. A sign to trade with extra caution or avoid.
✅ Use seasonal correlation as a filter – When a market aligns with its historical seasonal trend, success rates are significantly higher.
✅ Combine seasonality with trade confirmations – Instead of blindly entering trades based on dates, wait for price action confirmations that align with the expected seasonal move.
 

The 2024 results may have dipped slightly, but they still show that seasonality remains one of the most reliable trading tools available. With the right approach, focusing on strong seasonal markets, filtering for positive correlations, and confirming entries, you can use seasonal patterns to stack the odds in your favor.



Happy trading

Ray Gilmour
Founder & Senior analyst at Markets Made Clear.com