How we performed in 2016

|23rd January 2017|

In our last post ‘What we can learn from the volatility of 2016’ we discussed how challenging 2016 was for traders and looked at some of the unique events that shaped our charts. Most traders would agree that because of these events, trading was tough and with many major hedge funds and seasoned traders struggling to outperform the market, who could argue with them. 
So, what if I told you our trade calls made 130% last year? Impossible right?

We have sat down and analysed the trade calls we posted on our ‘Trade Ideas’ page throughout 2016 and the findings are simply staggering. In total, we posted 19 trade ideas, from those 19, 17 reached our recommended entry price, 13 were profitable, 1 flat and 3 losers. A total of 17 trades that could have netted you 130%. That’s a stunning return from just under 1.5 trades per month, proving that even in difficult trading conditions, if you are selective and know which markets to trade, you can still outperform.

The trades we called are all in the table below and can still be seen on our ‘Trade Ideas’ page if you wish to check them out for yourself. 
At this point I will stress we are not a trade call service and do not provide specific entry, stop and trade management rules. All our trade calls are to indicate how the Commitments of Traders data we provide is likely to impact the market and at what price we expect to see the impact take effect. Therefore, for the purpose of these stats we have taken the market price at date of entry and the closing price of that market at month end in which it triggered. The performance is based on the percentage change in price of each market during that time.

I would like to add that trade calls such as Soybean Meal, Dow Jones and Cotton continued to rally for several months after calling the lows but for consistency we have only calculated price change to month end. Meaning our true performance was much better than these stats show. 
Why you ask, would I make our stats less than what they really are? Simply because we are not a trade call service and do not ask to be judged on percentages, rather on whether we help traders get future market direction right. As traders, regardless of market conditions, there are 3 things we must do consistently well to be successful (profitable) in the markets.

1.    Predict the future direction of the market.
2.    Find the most efficient point to enter.
3.    Manage risk.

To me, the first point is by far the most important and that is why I focus around 80% of my trading time on it. The stats show that it was time well spent with 76% of markets moving in the predicted direction. 


If you are interested in a trade call service, you should have no problem finding one online. If, however, you want to be in control of your own trading and investment decisions then I suggest, if you don’t do so already, to focus 80% of your trading time working out future market direction. Find something that gives you an edge and maximise its full potential. I really do not mind what your edge is, I already have mine and last year’s trade calls proves to me that I still have an edge over the market.


By Ray Gilmour